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Ready. Set. Slowdown?

Articles | 17 May 2017

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Growth in China is likely to continue to decelerate, according to the consensus of surveyed economists, but our own assessment suggests there’s more than meets the eye...  

Growth certainly has been driven by both a monetary and political cycle. Monetary policy was eased substantially for the first time since 2010 in 2015 and the political cycle is gearing up for an “election”. But it’s also set in train a significant program of works, both property and infrastructure, that might sustain an upturn in economic growth beyond 2017. This period of growth acceleration has important investment implications. We explain our view of the acceleration from a macro and sector perspective and provide some insight into its impact on investment strategy.